Hurricane Laura Approaching At a Rapid Pace

Hurricane Laura Approaching At a Rapid Pace
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Miami: Hurricane Laura is expected to become a life-threatening Category 4 storm before coming ashore along the Texas-Louisiana coast this week, potentially inflicting as much as US$18 billion (S$26.7 billion) in damage on the region and keeping some of America's largest oil refineries shut for months.

Laura's winds were forecast to peak at 209 kilometres per hour over the Gulf of Mexico, but could weaken slightly before hitting the coast on Thursday (Aug 27), according to the National Hurricane Centre.

The storm has already disrupted offshore oil and natural gas production, shut a third of the Gulf Coast's refining capacity, halted exports and prompted mandatory evacuations. It's set to be the first major system to hit the Gulf Coast since Michael in 2018.

"Laura has become a formidable hurricane," the NHC said on its website. A "life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves is expected to produce potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River."

Even when it was forecast to become no more powerful than Category 3, Laura was predicted to cause anywhere between US$6 billion and US$18 billion in losses, according to Chuck Watson, a disaster modeller with Enki Research. About 10 per cent to 12 per cent of US refining capacity could be shut for more than six months, he said.

"It is going to be a hard hitter, and it is going to cause some devastating impacts," said Jim Rouiller, lead meteorologist with the Energy Weather Group. "Louisiana is going to have a lot of damage with this storm."

After Laura rips across the Gulf Coast, it will leave a path of destruction through the Mississippi Valley before turning on the Mid-Atlantic region that just recovered from Hurricane Isaias, Rouiller said.

There is a possibility Laura will re-intensify once it makes it to Maryland, New Jersey and possibly New York, he said.

The tropical threat has prompted more than 84 per cent of oil output and nearly 61 per cent of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico to be shut, according to the Interior Department's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.

Gulf Coast refineries and petrochemical plants are often located in low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding. In 2017, an Arkema SA chemical plant about 40km east of Houston had a fire and explosion after it was flooded by Hurricane Harvey. Last September, Exxon shut its Beaumont refinery in Texas because of flooding from Tropical Storm Imelda.

Laura could push sea levels as high as 4.6 metres in the Sabine Pass area and along parts of the Texas coast where the Henry Hub is located, the hurricane centre said at 5 am New York time (5 pm Wednesday Singapore time). Storm surge kills nearly half of all people who die in hurricanes.